What the bond market is telling us about the economic future

Sign up for the free Daily Report email – local news about the people, companies and issues that impact business impact business in Baton Rouge and beyond.

The cost to borrow money is on the rise, The New York Times reports, and that is bad news for homebuyers and other prospective borrowers.

Rising rates helped cause a stock market sell-off on Wednesday, prompting President Donald Trump to say the Federal Reserve has “gone crazy.”

But others say it’s good news for the long-term direction of the economy.

Advertisement

In effect, the multi-trillion dollar global bond market is signaling a little greater confidence than it did just a few weeks ago that the nine-year expansion in the United States may have room to keep going for years to come, and without inflation taking off.

The yield on 10-year United States Treasury bonds reached a seven-year high this week of 3.25% (it receded some Wednesday as stocks dropped), up from 2.82% in August. The 10-year rate was below 1.4% as recently as July 2016.

But beyond those headline numbers, the details of how the prices of different types of securities have moved relative to one another tell a story that is decidedly optimistic.

The rise in rates means the world’s most savvy investors are betting that the U.S. economy will keep growing at a healthy clip, without inflation emerging, but that the Fed will have to keep raising rates well above current levels in order to prevent that inflation.
Read the full story.

Comments (0)

From Our Partners

Daily Report Poll

ASK AI

Ask anything about Baton Rouge business