If the last gubernatorial race in Louisiana is any guide, candidates should start surfacing soon for the 2019 race, Jeremy Alford says in his latest column.
“Back in December 2013 (roughly two years before the last gubernatorial runoff), the contenders were already making quite a bit of noise,” Alford writes. “For example, Commissioner of Administration Jay Dardenne had by that time launched his campaign website, and former U.S. Sen. David Vitter was preparing to send an email to supporters hinting at an official announcement. Gov. John Bel Edwards, for his part, was attending one fundraiser after another.”
In contrast, there’s very little action happening today, roughly two years before the 2019 runoff election, Alford says. There is a lot of talk though.
Possible challengers to Edwards include Congressman Ralph Abraham, Attorney General Jeff Landry, State Sen. Sharon Hewitt, and U.S. Sen. John Kennedy. Congressman Garret Graves, state Rep. Lance Harris, state Sen. Bret Allain and Louisiana Association of Business and Industry President Stephen Waguespack also can be added to the working list of potential challengers, Alford says.
One of the reasons there was so much activity two years ahead of the 2015 race is because Louisiana had an open governor seat, says political consultant Roy Fletcher, who helped former Gov. Mike Foster get elected.
“The risk-reward equation is coming into tune here,” Fletcher tells Alford. “The question is, ‘How big of a risk is it to run if I can’t beat him?’ The lack of activity is a reflection of the governor’s poll numbers.”
Still, major contenders need to have themselves “plugged in and functioning at a high level” by the summer, Fletcher adds. Consultant Lionel Rainey, who’s worked for Kennedy, Treasurer John Schroder and Secretary of State Tom Schedler, agrees.
“You can’t wait too long,” says Rainey, who’s not affiliated with a gubernatorial campaign. “You wouldn’t want another candidate to begin to build too much momentum and financial support.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
