Though the governor’s race is just two months away, a new statewide poll shows the campaign has yet to catch fire in the public imagination. According to the results of the survey, conducted between July 7 and Aug. 3 by the Public Policy Research Lab at LSU’s Manship School of Mass Communication, just 29% of voters in the state are closely following news about the election, roughly unchanged from the 25% who were following it in March.
The poll also shows that large majorities of voters remain unfamiliar with three of the four candidates: Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne—both Republicans—and State Rep. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat.
“This race should caution us against over-emphasizing horse race polls that look at how many votes a candidate might get,” says Michael Henderson, research director of PPRL. “This early in the campaign, most voters do not have solid opinions about the candidates. When they start to tune in and learn about the candidates, the poll numbers will better reflect what we will ultimately see on election day.”
Only U.S. Sen. David Vitter has significant name recognition among voters, according to the poll. But voter opinion about the Republican senator remains essentially unchanged since March, and he continues to lead the pack in both his favorable rating, 45%, and unfavorable rating, 30%.
Dardenne follows, with 29% favorable and 8% unfavorable. Poll results show Angelle with 18% favorable and 5% unfavorable, and Edwards with 15% favorable and 8% unfavorable.
“Until voters are paying attention, the horse race numbers can only tell us so much about what voters think or what they may ultimately decide,” Henderson says.
Even as opinions of the candidates have not changed, there has been a steep rise in the share of Louisiana residents who think the state is heading in the wrong direction. This share of voters rose from 45% in January to 59% in July.
“The electorate is in a sour mood,” Henderson says. “But no candidate has galvanized these voters yet.”
Data in the survey was collected via telephone interviews from a randomly selected, statewide representative group of 1,023 registered voters.
—Stephanie Riegel
