With a little more than two weeks until the gubernatorial runoff, a new poll of 600 likely voters statewide shows the race is almost too close to call, with Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards up just two points over Republican challenger Eddie Rispone, 48%-46%, with 6% of respondents still undecided.
The independent poll, released Monday, was conducted by Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics for media group Nexstar Communications. The poll was conducted Oct. 24-26 and has an error of +/-4%.
Though the poll gives Edwards a narrow lead, JMC pollster John Couvillon says in a written summary of the results that turnout will be key to deciding the Nov. 16 runoff election.
“Given that the undecided percentage is down to 6% (4% if “leaners” are excluded), this is now an election where turnout matters a lot more than persuasion, particularly with early voting less than a week away,” Couvillon says.
As evidence, Couvillon points to the fact that respondents did not change their responses of who they support, even after they were read messaging used by both campaigns.
The poll results break down among predictable demographic lines. Black voters favor Edwards, 88%-8%, as do Democrats, 76%-19%. Women also favor the incumbent, 52%-42%.
Rispone leads among white voters, 63%-32%, as well as Republicans, 79%-16%, and men, 53%-44%.
Commenting on the poll in his daily e-newsletter, political analyst Ron Fauchaux writes that a high turnout of black voters, along with a low white turnout in the northern and central parts of the state, would re-elect Edwards. A high white turnout, especially among Trump supporters, would elect Rispone.
Other findings of the poll show incumbent Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin handily winning reelection, 48%-32%. The poll also finds 52% of those surveyed approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 54% oppose the impeachment inquiry. See more results.
(Editor’s Note: This story has been revised to correct the spelling of John Couvillon’s last name. Daily Report regrets the error.)
