On the eve of the governor’s runoff election, a new independent poll shows incumbent John Bel Edwards and his Republican challenger, Eddie Rispone, in a virtual dead heat.
The poll, conducted over two days earlier this week by JMC Analytics and Polling, shows the lead Edwards had over Rispone in a late October JMC poll has narrowed—largely due to an increase in undecided voters, not Rispone supporters.
The new poll puts Rispone slightly ahead, with 45.5% of voters, compared to Edwards’ 45%, and 9% undecided. In the previous poll, Rispone had 46% of voters, while Edwards had 48%. At that time, 6% said they were undecided.
Despite the razor-thin difference, pollster John Couvillon believes Edwards will pull off victory by a hair. That’s largely because early and absentee voting by the state’s black voters has been much higher this time around than during the October primary.
Then, black voters, who are largely Democrat, cast 25% of the early votes and 28% of the absentee and mail-in ballots. This time, they’ve cast 31% of early votes and 31% of absentee and mail-in ballots, according to data posted by the Secretary of State late Thursday, Couvillon says.
Given that momentum, he predicts black voter turnout Saturday will be between 29%-30%. On election day last month, it was 28.4%
“When Democrats’ backs are up against the proverbial wall, they turn out,” Couvillon says.
Also factoring into Couvillon’s calculus is the fact that Rispone’s support among Republican voters has not grown, even though more GOP voters are undecided than they were three weeks ago.
In JMC’s October poll, Rispone led Edwards among Republican voters 79% to 17%. In this week’s poll, Edwards’ support among Republicans had slipped to 11% but Rispone’s remained constant at 79%.
Key for Rispone to pull off victory will be to get all of the votes that went to the third-place primary finisher, U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham, and, says Couvillion, “getting 100 percent of an eliminated candidate’s support is very hard.” He predicts that task will be even more difficult given factions within a Republican party still smarting from Rispone’s attack ads against Abraham during the primary.
“It’s going to be a very tight race,” Couvillon says. “But I think Edwards has a marginal benefit.”
Election reminder and publisher endorsements: Polls will be open Saturday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. In addition to the gubernatorial election there is a rematch for secretary of state, 29 legislative races—including several in the Baton Rouge area, that will determine if Republicans gain a House supermajority, as well as BESE and judicial elections. Read Business Report publisher Rolfe McCollister’s endorsements for the election.
