Early voting turnout statistics point to strong support for Democrat Sharon Weston Broome in the Baton Rouge mayoral election, but an uphill battle for Democratic candidate Foster Campbell in his bid for U.S. Senate ahead of the Dec. 10 runoff election, says political consultant Roy Fletcher.
That’s because early voting turnout among African-Americans—who typically support Democrats over Republicans—is up in East Baton Rouge Parish but down statewide, Fletcher says.
Overall early voting numbers, which are not entirely complete until all mail-in ballots are counted, are also down compared to the Nov. 8 primary. Statewide, early voting turnout is 68% lower. In East Baton Rouge Parish, the difference is less dramatic, but still 45% lower for the Dec. 10 runoff elections.
Black voters accounted for roughly 37% of the ballots cast early for the Nov. 8 election in East Baton Rouge Parish—which voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election—and 40% of early votes cast for the runoff.
“(Broome) is structurally advantaged because her base is solid as a rock,” Fletcher says. “It appears to me there’s going to be a fairly decent turnout among African-Americans on Election Day, too.”
But the mayoral race is still close, Fletcher says, especially with Republican Bodi White’s strong fundraising so far. White raised more than $1 million as of Nov. 30, nearly twice as much as Broome.
The early voting turnout statistics also indicate a strong showing by Republican Treasurer John Kennedy, who is favored to win the Senate race against Campbell, Fletcher says. Turnout among black voters is down statewide, from 27% in the primary to 24% in the runoff, he says, noting that’s still “serious progress” from last week when early voting among blacks appeared significantly lower.
“It’s gonna be hard for Campbell,” Fletcher says. “The low percentage of blacks in the early vote is real ominous.”
But the inching up of the black vote as its share of the electorate means Campbell is rallying some support, Fletcher says.
—Sam Karlin
