A few weeks ago, the field for the New Orleans mayoral election seemed to be pretty well set. New Orleans City Councilmember Helena Moreno appeared to be the frontrunner to replace term-limited LaToya Cantrell, with a chance to win the race without a runoff.
With Sen. Royce Duplessis’ surprise announcement that he would run for mayor after previously saying he wouldn’t, Moreno may still be the early favorite, though her chances of avoiding a runoff are likely slim to nonexistent. Beyond that, the senator’s decision is a bit of a head-scratcher for many politicos.
Duplessis seriously investigated a run for mayor last year before stating in January that he wouldn’t seek the office, citing the challenge of raising money. Six months later, that job has only gotten harder, as many potential donors and fundraisers have already picked their horse.
On the other hand, plenty of people donate to multiple candidates, or even all of them, and certainly wouldn’t mind cutting a check to a sitting state senator whether or not they think he can win.
And while he may not be as well known citywide as Moreno or Councilmember Oliver Thomas, who has been running second in the polls, he has the ability to peel off votes from both, says Dillard University professor and political analyst Robert Collins.
“Some people say he’s going to cut into the Thomas vote because he’s another Black candidate,” Collins says. “But the racial dynamics in New Orleans are not that cut and dry. We have crossover voting all the time.”
Since New Orleans municipal races are held in off years relative to the state elections, legislators don’t have to give up their seat to make a run. New Orleans-area legislators don’t risk much by shooting their shot, even if it’s a long one, and the resulting boost in name recognition can pay dividends down the road.
A poll by JMC Analytics taken before Duplessis entered the race found Moreno leading the field at 52%, more than doubling up Thomas at 23% and well ahead of former Judge Arthur Hunter’s 11%.
As for the money chase, Moreno was leading with more than $1.5 million on hand when the last batch of official reports were filed in April. She is expected to have more than $2 million in the next quarterly report, and she hasn’t even had any TV ads yet.
By contrast, Thomas had about $225,000 while Hunter had a little less than $89,000. Thomas has taken the position that he is widely known enough that he doesn’t need to raise $1 million, which Collins considers the threshold for a serious mayoral contender, and can depend on shoe-leather retail politics to make the runoff.
Read the full column to learn about contenders in other races. Click here to view all of the candidates who qualified last week.
