Despite new platforms coming online through 2017, the Gulf of Mexico oilfield will not be a hotspot of activity over the next two years, a new forecast says.
Economist Loren Scott is predicting Houma-Thibodaux will lose 4,000 jobs next year as a global crude oil glut continues, The Courier reports.
The area, comprised of Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes, has already lost 10,400 jobs over the past two years. If Scott’s forecast materializes, the area will have lost just over 14% of all its jobs in the three years ending in 2017. Scott’s report predicts the Houma-Thibodaux economy will level off—with little change in the job numbers—in 2018.
Scott delivered his economic outlook for the state in late September at Business Report’s Top 100 Luncheon. He predicted the state’s overall economy to remain flat in 2017, while the nine-parish Baton Rouge area is projected to add about 4,500 jobs in 2017 and 4,500 more in 2018—which is more in absolute terms than any other metro region in Louisiana.
Oil prices closed just above $50 Friday, less than half their levels in mid-2014, when the decline in local jobs began. The Gulf rig count has stagnated at 20 for the past month, according to figures released Friday by the state Department of Natural Resources. That figure is down 10 rigs, 31%, from a year ago and 36 rigs, 64%, from August 2014.
The number of oil and gas rigs working in Louisiana rose by six last week, but all of them are on land. The state had a total of 68 rigs working both on land and offshore, down 29% from the same time last year.
Scott premises his predictions on oil averaging $53 a barrel next year and $60 in 2018, though his Louisiana Economic Outlook report cautions that those prices could range from $30 to $90 a barrel.
