The Baton Rouge metro-area housing market is expected to have an early and healthy recovery, a National Association of Homebuilders analyst told the Baton Rouge Press Club today. Robert Denk, a staff forecaster for the NAHB, says the area will not only be among the more stable markets expected to recover by late this year, but the NAHB projects it will surpass national housing starts into 2010.
The market, boosted by the Katrina effect in 2006-07 while the national housing market dived, has remained stable in the recession. “We’re fairly bullish on the Baton Rouge market,” Denk says. Louisiana’s housing market also is expected to recover by later this year because of stronger economic indicators including lower unemployment, less subprime and ARMs exposure, and stable housing prices. “Louisiana prices are close to historical norms so don’t worry over steep declines,” Denk says.
For the boom-bust states like Nevada and Florida, he forecast a lingering downturn that could last several years. Denk called the downturn “necessary medicine” that could bring housing prices to more affordable levels. He criticized national media for overstating the housing crisis, failing to point out there are stable markets in the nation. Denk predicts Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will stay under government control another five to 10 years before returning to private management.—Anna Thibodeaux
