All nine parishes in the Capital Region, led by Ascension and East Baton Rouge, are projected to experience job growth in 2020 despite a stagnant population forecast and current construction lull.
That’s according to the Baton Rouge Area Chamber’s 2020 Economic Outlook, unveiled this morning over breakfast to a room of local stakeholders.
Overall, the Baton Rouge area is projected to see a 1.2% uptick in employment in 2020, which translates to 4,900 new jobs. Ascension is expected to gain 1,472 net new jobs (+2.9%), fueled largely by the projection that the construction sector—the region’s third-largest in terms of job distribution—will, as more projects come online, resurrect after experiencing a 4.4% employment dip this past year.
Meanwhile, East Baton Rouge could see 1.9% job growth, with anticipated spikes in construction as well as health care and social assistance-related jobs.
“The Capital Region economy experienced modest job and income growth over the year, and we see evidence that the growth will have a faster pace in 2020,” says BRAC President and CEO Adam Knapp in a prepared statement. “With a large number of manufacturing expansions beginning in 2020, we anticipate the region will see its largest job growth since 2015.”
On the other hand, the metro area’s population—which currently hovers around 831,000—is expected to stagnate.
Negative net migration plays a significant role in this. Baton Rouge lost 3,430 residents over the past year to outmigration, ranking dead last among 10 peer metros. For comparison: Richmond, Virginia, is up 9,610 people, while Oklahoma City is up 6,648 people. Only one peer metro—Mobile, Alabama—also has a negative net migration, though its loss of 1,584 is less than half of Baton Rouge’s.
Generally, Baton Rouge loses residents to New Orleans, Hammond and Houston. But the metro area also gains residents from New Orleans, Hammond and Lafayette.
Among other key findings:
• College enrollment in the Capital Region has surpassed 50,000 for the first time in six years, reaching nearly 53,000 in fall 2019.
• Between 2008 and 2018, median household income climbed 19% in the Baton Rouge area, the best in the state. Peer cities have seen a 16% increase, while Louisiana incomes overall are up 10%.
• For the sixth straight year, area businesses cited traffic as the No. 1 obstacle for businesses in the Capital Region.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with the correct population number for the Baton Rouge Metro Area.
