Alford: The odds are against Edwards scoring a first-round TKO

No matter what kind of politician you might be, regardless of funding or name recognition, winning in the first round is the easiest way to go, aside from escaping opposition altogether.

But if you’re Gov. John Bel Edwards or one of his top handlers, winning in the primary during a year like this one takes on a whole different tone.

As Jeremy Alford writes in his latest column, that’s because some of the incumbent’s boosters and consultants believe it will be easier for Edwards to lock down victory on the first ballot than on a second, which at this point seems to hold as much mystery for Democrats as an Agatha Christie novel.

The formula for winning this way is simple enough—50% of the vote plus one point. Notch that and you get a governorship, and that appears to be the goal for Team JBE. Can Edwards pull it off?

For starters, Edwards is facing eight opponents on the October ballot, including Congressman Ralph Abraham, businessman Eddie Rispone and six lower-tier contenders that some might describe as “also-rans.” Going back to the 1983 governor’s race, an also-ran candidate has on average captured 0.46 percentage points per primary showing, or 6,600 votes. 

Plugging that into the 2019 gubernatorial primary, the also-rans should knock about 3 percentage points or 40,000 votes off of the table. That also-ran tally, however, is likely to be much higher this fall. Each instance of an incumbent re-election bid for the past 36 years has resulted in a notable spike of vote shares for also-ran candidates. 

Read Alford’s full column for a breakdown of how the vote could shake out in a re-election year, and what these six also-ran contenders could mean for Edwards, Rispone and Abraham. 

Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.