When it comes to voting trends in Louisiana, things are going to get worse before they get better, Jeremy Alford says.
“We’ll know for sure the evening of Saturday, Nov. 18, after voters are offered the opportunity to participate in statewide and local runoff elections,” Alford writes in his latest column. “That’s an opportunity too many voters will likely pass on, though, and a day that could host the lowest turnout Louisiana has ever seen for such a ballot.”
Alford notes that Secretary of State Tom Schedler’s team recently reviewed 35 years worth of statewide elections in search of the low-water mark for voter participation. It happened on Oct. 14 when only 400,000 of the state’s nearly 3 million registered voters participated in the statewide primary.
“Unfortunately, there’s no good news to go along with this bad news,” Alford writes. “Election officials expect the voting tally in next month’s runoff will match the primary turnout of 13%, although there are warning signs that it could drop below that threshold.”
The runoff for state treasurer will be the only item on the ballot for 56 of Louisiana’s 64 parishes next month, Alford notes. Alford predicts local matchups in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Denham Springs and a few other places won’t be enough to attract hordes of voters.
“No one in Louisiana politics feels upbeat about turnout chances for the Nov. 18 runoff,” Alford writes. “Prospects are so poor, in fact, that the secretary of state is already working on proposals for the Legislature to consider in the spring to correct this course.”
Instead of a special election, Schedler’s proposal would allow an appointed official to serve in the position until the regularly scheduled election is held, Alford says. But before we can get Schedler’s proposal, voters have to get through the Nov. 18 runoff.
“It could produce the lowest turnout for a statewide race in Louisiana history. And no, there probably won’t be any exciting electoral surprises. But that doesn’t mean you’re supposed to literally run off whenever there’s a runoff,” he writes. “It just means you’ll have to work a little harder to stay engaged.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
