A new 20-year analysis of Census data indicates the 10/12 corridor continues to grow faster than the nation as a whole.
Louisiana demographer and political analyst Elliott Stonecipher discovered that populations in the 11 parishes along Interstate 10 and Interstate 12 from Lake Charles to Slidell have grown nearly 35% since 1980. That’s more than half a percent faster than the entire country.
The 10 interstate parishes around Lake Pontchartrain grew by more than 5% during that same period – even with post-Katrina losses in Orleans Parish. St. Tammany Parish led the 20-year growth at 106%, followed by Livingston, up nearly 105%; Ascension, 103%; St. John, 47%; Tangipahoa, 45%; and St. Charles and Lafayette, 38%.
By comparison, the U.S. population as a whole grew a little more than 34%; Louisiana, by less than 5%.
Other corridor parishes experienced significant growth as well, although they didn’t keep pace with the national rate. East Baton Rouge, for example, gained nearly 17% more residents, while Calcasieu lured 11%.
Nevertheless, Stonecipher says the data presents an overall image of Louisiana that is “downright Dickensian.” His analysis notes that the 29 North Louisiana parishes lost nearly half a percent of their population, and places like Tensas Parish lost more than 33% of its population; East Carroll, 31%; and Madison, 26%. A host of other North Louisiana parishes lost 10% to 20% of their residents. The only success story there: Bossier Parish, which grew by nearly 37%.
“It’s the (relative) best of times for a handful of parishes, and truly the worst of times for others,” he says. “Note that the eight parishes with growth at or above the national rate over this period have 22.3% of the state’s population. These eight have a net population gain of 382,907, while the 64-parish state total has gained only 204,896. Put more dramatically, those eight parishes grew a cumulative 63.8%, and the remaining 56 parishes lost 4.2%.”
He notes that six of the growth parishes gained population through “white flight,” and thereby fewer citizens below the poverty level. Lafayette and Bossier parishes, he says, made their gains through economic diversification. Stonecipher’s analysis also indicates that the underlying demographics of in-migrants versus outmigrants is worsening for the state as a whole. More than 20% of those moving into Louisiana had less than a high-school education, while more than 31% of those leaving had a college degree or higher.
“Effectively, this is a story of a lost generation of growth,” he says. “That there is no public policy response – i.e. state government – to such problems and imbalance is staggering. In many of the dying parishes, only generations into the future hold any possible – not likely – hope for recovery.”
Stonecipher will present these and other findings to the St. Tammany League of Women Voters on April 22 and the Real Estate Land Institute in Baton Rouge on May 1.
