U.S. Rep. Garret Graves has had a rough few months.
Just last year, he was being hailed as a rising star in Washington. He was a close confidant of then-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, who appointed him to the Elected Leadership Committee and trusted him to lead high-stakes debt ceiling discussions with the White House. And in Louisiana, big names in the GOP were imploring him to run for governor.
But a lot has changed since then.
There’s a new speaker of the House—one who promptly removed Graves from his leadership position upon election. Then there’s House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who Graves alienated when he refused to support his bid for speaker. And then there’s Gov. Jeff Landry, who Graves made an enemy of when he backed Stephen Waguespack in last year’s gubernatorial race.
And in perhaps the biggest blow to his political career yet, Landry and the Louisiana Legislature are seeking to dismantle Graves’ 6th Congressional District to create a court-mandated second majority-Black district—a move that could put him out of a job.
According to Robert Hogan, chair of LSU’s political science department, Graves’ newfound status as persona non grata can be at least partly attributed to a voting record that, while still very conservative, is more moderate than many of his peers would prefer.
“Republican politics in this state have taken a rightward lurch, and he’s someone who’s been less to the right than some of his colleagues,” Hogan says. “I think that has contributed to where he is at this point—his lack of fidelity to the issues that extreme conservatives and the MAGA crowd most champion.”
So where does Graves go from here? He’s signaled that he aims to run for reelection, either in the redrawn 6th District or in one of the districts currently represented by Clay Higgins, Julia Letlow or Scalise. If he chooses to run in the 6th District, Hogan says he faces an uphill battle.
“A majority-Black district is going to be heavily skewed toward Democrats,” Hogan says. “His experience in Congress is not going to be viewed as a positive for constituents in that kind of district. He has a voting record that a lot of Democrats would have trouble with.”
While running in the 6th District would certainly be a challenge, Hogan says that victory is not entirely outside the realm of possibility. Graves is a skilled campaigner who has built a brand on fighting for the practical concerns of his constituents, like flooding and tax reform. That track record may serve him well despite the overwhelming odds stacked against him.
There has also been speculation that if he chooses not to run for reelection, he might throw his hat in the ring for Senate in 2026. A third possibility, Hogan says, is that he could choose to become a lobbyist—a road that many former congressmen from Louisiana have gone down in the past.
“He’s extremely well positioned to be a lobbyist,” Hogan says. “He’s championed the oil and gas industry throughout his career. You’ve got to think that would be a big option for him.”
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