As the 2012 race toward the White House begins to heat up, speculation about presumptive GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s forthcoming pick for a running mate has run rampant. And whenever the topic comes up, Gov. Bobby Jindal’s name seems to be somewhere in the conversation—with some making their case for him and others against him.
A recent survey conducted by LSU’s Public Policy Research Lab offers some insight and guidance into what type of candidate would net Romney the biggest gains with voters. In short, picking a moderate candidate would net Romney the largest gain in support.
Choosing a religious conservative would be the least popular choice among voters, the survey says.
“In selecting a vice-president, Mitt Romney faces an interesting dilemma—pick a religious conservative to mobilize his Republican base or pick a moderate to appeal to independent and potential crossover voters,” says PPRL Director Kirby Goidel. “Our data show pretty convincingly that Romney’s biggest advantage comes by appealing to the middle.”
So, does that mean Jindal would be the best pick? Political consultant Roy Fletcher thinks so.
“When you add all that he brings together, it’s a pretty complete package,” Fletcher says. “His résumé is deep, he brings an enormous capacity to raise money, he’s one of the finest campaigners I’ve ever seen in terms of being able to stay on message and he doesn’t hurt himself by being a Catholic.”
Fletcher says he expects Romney to announce a running mate shortly after the Olympics end on Aug. 21, but before the Republican National Convention opens on Aug. 27.
Though the talking heads have made much of the fact that Jindal is a minority, the PPRL survey found picking a minority or female running mate would make very little difference in Romney’s overall appeal and support.
As for specifics in the survey, 13% percent of registered voters said they would be more likely to support Romney if he picked a moderate vice president, while 8.3% said they would be less likely to support Romney with a moderate running mate. The net gain for Romney for selecting a moderate vice president would be five percentage points.
Even among Republican voters, Romney would gain more by nominating a moderate as vice president, with 15% saying they would be more likely to support Romney if he ran with a moderate. That’s compared to 9% who said they would be less likely to support Romney if he ran with a moderate running mate.
Eight percent said they would be more likely to support Romney were he to select a religious conservative as his vice presidential pick, while 19.5% said they would be less likely to support his campaign under this particular scenario. The net loss to Romney for picking a religious conservative would be 11.4 percentage points.
