Seven in 10 U.S. voters tell Gallup the outcome of the presidential election matters more to them this year than it did in prior election years—in line with what Gallup recorded at this stage of the past three presidential campaigns. However, before 2004, voters were far less likely to believe presidential elections meant that much.
Across the 20 years Gallup has asked about the importance of the election outcome, including in the latest update—from a poll conducted on Oct. 25 and 26, and released this morning—few voters say the election matters less than in the past, including just 3% this year. Instead, most of those who don’t think it matters more (29% this year) say it matters about the same.
Since 1996, the percentage of Americans who show up at the polls on Election Day has followed the same trajectory as voter attitudes about the importance of each election. In 1996 and 2000, when less than half of voters believed the election was especially important, voter turnout failed to reach 55%. But from 2004 to 2012, when 70% or more of voters have consistently said the election matters more than usual, turnout among the U.S. voting-age population has been at or near 60%.
Given the historical pattern, turnout in the 2016 election could be on the high side, similar to 2012, Gallup estimates. However, the effect on the election’s outcome depends on whether one party turns out at a higher rate than the other.
Currently, 80% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats say the election’s outcome matters more to them than it did in prior elections. While that 11-point margin may seem advantageous for Republican nominee Donald Trump, the Republicans’ even greater 19-point advantage on the same measure in 2012 did not correspond with the GOP winning the White House. Likewise, Democrats had the edge in 2004 and 2008, but lost in 2004 while winning in 2008. In 2000, Republicans had the advantage and won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote.
