After plummeting in 2010, Americans’ confidence that they would find a job as good as their current one if they happened to be laid off has been restored, according to a new Gallup poll.
Currently, 63% believe it is very or somewhat likely that they would find a job as good as the one they have, up from 42% six years ago. The current figure is similar to what Gallup measured in early 2007, before the recession.
Specifically, the poll posed the question: “If you were to lose your job, how likely is it that you would find a job just as good as the one you have now—very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?”
When Gallup last asked this question, in April 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate was 9.9%. This April, it is 5%.
“Those positive employment trends are likely one factor in Americans’ greater confidence in finding comparable work if they were to lose their job,” Gallup reports. “Whether their confidence is warranted is unclear, though, partly because the job growth in recent years has come disproportionately among lower-paying and part-time jobs.”
The unemployment rates were similar to the current level—slightly below 5%—when Gallup asked the question in 2001, 2006 and 2007. In the 16-year history of the trend, the 2010 measurement is the only one in which the employment situation was dramatically different from the other years.
Since 1975, Gallup has routinely asked U.S. workers to assess the likelihood that they will lose their job. The vast majority of workers have always viewed being laid off as a remote possibility.
“Today, just 15% say it is very or somewhat likely that they will be laid off in the next 12 months,” Gallup reports. “That remains down from the high point of 21% in 2010, and essentially matches the historical average of 14%.”
