As President Donald Trump faces pressure to deliver on his promise to revive manufacturing in the northern “rust belt” states that put him in the White House, his biggest challenge may not be Mexico or China, but the southern U.S. states that form the other pillar of his political base.
As Reuters reports, states like Alabama have built a presence in the global supply chain in direct competition with the country’s Midwestern industrial heartland, and even if Trump coaxes jobs back to the United States, they may well head south rather than north.
Whether the “rust belt’s” expectations are met will be central to 2018 U.S. midterm elections and likely frame the presidential race in 2020.
The southern states are reliably Republican, but the party’s ability to repeat its success in Midwestern swing states, such as Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, may hinge on whether the Trump administration delivers on its economic promises.
For a decade now, nine southern states—Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas—together have accounted for a larger share of the U.S. economy than nine northern states that defined America as the 20th century’s industrial superpower, according to a Reuters analysis of federal data.
Economists and industrial site consultants say the reasons behind the trend have moved beyond lower wages and lower levels of unionization. Per capita income in the south has now almost caught up with that in the Midwest, and its skilled workforce continues to grow as college graduates move in.
