The deal that U.S. President Donald Trump signed at Versailles in June set an ambitious 60-day deadline for ending the war with Iran and reaching an accord on its nuclear program.
The deadline was Monday, and the two sides are further apart than they were then.
Talks, such as they are, have focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting a U.S. blockade on Iran, both of which were supposed to have happened under the interim deal. There has been no sign of any compromise on the strait, or that detailed nuclear talks have even begun.
The U.S., meanwhile, has no good options for getting out of the war it started alongside Israel.
Accepting Iran’s latest demands would mean giving it control over a critical international waterway that carried one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas before the war—and would be tantamount to admitting defeat. Escalating the deeply unpopular war would further draw down U.S. supplies of advanced missile interceptors, jolt the world economy and drive up gas prices ahead of U.S. congressional elections.
So both sides have dug in, hoping the other will blink first. So far, neither has.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which rose immediately after the interim deal, is back to a small fraction of what it was before the war. Rising prices of fuel and other goods are expected to climb further the longer this continues with effects far beyond the Middle East.
The clock is still ticking for both sides.
