Less than two weeks before Election Day, American voters could learn that economic growth has suddenly accelerated to its fastest pace in two years.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, it’s not a trick or conspiracy, simply the product of the government’s regular schedule for releasing economic statistics. The Commerce Department’s first estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter has long been scheduled to come out on Oct. 28, 11 days before the Nov. 8 presidential election. Many economists are predicting the report will show a pickup in growth after three straight quarters of lackluster expansion, fueled by decent-if-not-great consumer spending and the end of a five-quarter drag from lackluster business inventories.
A lot can—and probably will—change between now and late October. But as of Friday, forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers projected a 3.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate for GDP in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model on Thursday predicted a 3% growth rate. Oxford Economics on Friday also estimated the third quarter’s growth rate at 3%.
Some forecasters are more cautious—economists at Barclays on Friday predicted third-quarter growth at a more modest 2.6% pace. And surprises are common; economists similarly predicted a pickup in GDP growth during the second quarter, but it failed to materialize.
Still, if the pace of GDP growth exceeds 2.6% for the current quarter, it would be the strongest growth rate since the 5% pace seen in the third quarter of 2014. That won’t decide the election either way, but good news could benefit Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who has positioned herself as the political heir to President Barack Obama and his stewardship of the economy. Similar good news came last week when the government reported that U.S. household incomes surged in 2015 while the poverty rate declined.
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