Two-thirds of business economists in the U.S. expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while a plurality of respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey.
Bloomberg reports about 10% see the next contraction starting in 2019, 56% say 2020 and 33% say 2021 or later, according to the Aug. 28-Sept. 17 poll of 51 forecasters by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday.
Forty-one percent say the biggest downside risk was trade policy, followed by 18% of respondents citing higher interest rates and the same share saying it would be a substantial stock-market decline or volatility.
“Trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views,” David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research director and NABE’s survey chair, says in a statement with the report.
The May expansion that became the second-longest on record still looks resilient, with no major warning signs flashing and Fed officials upgrading their growth outlook for this year and next. Should it endure, the U.S. expansion would in mid-2019 become the nation’s longest ever, based on National Bureau of Economic Research figures that go back to the 1850s.
On the brighter side, 33% of respondents say the biggest potential driver of a stronger economic performance is corporate tax reform, 27% cite stronger wage gains and 10% say stronger global growth.
