Overall, about a quarter of all U.S. students move out of their home states to attend college. In Louisiana, less than half that rate—12%—of students leave the state to pursue a higher education, placing it among the top states in the country in terms of college student retainment.
But The Washington Post reports that newly-published research by University of Madison-Wisconsin economist John Kennan suggests an increase in tuition could lead to lower retainment rates for states such as Louisiana.
Kennan says tuition discounts or increased higher-ed investments are good ways for states not only to attract college students, but also to increase the number of college graduates who end up working in the state.
The fear has always been that college students will leave the state after they graduate. Previous research has found when a state bumps up the number of college students it graduates, there is barely a difference later on in how many college-educated people are in the workforce.
Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, Kennan was able to take a closer look. He had over a decade of information on where people lived, where they went to school, tuition, where they ended up, and how much their jobs paid, among other things. He could see who moved for school, and who moved for work. On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research published a draft of Kennan’s report.
His conclusion is states probably don’t have much to worry about. Most students stick around for college, and most of those students then stay to work. By Kennan’s estimates, a 20% tuition reduction might lead to anywhere from a 2% to 10% percent eventual increase in the number of college graduates in the state.
“Since the recession, many states have balanced their budgets through higher-education cuts. Louisiana is the most dramatic example, keeping its college system afloat by shifting more and more of the costs onto students,” The Times reports. “Gov. Bobby Jindal has signaled that even more cuts are to come as the state faces a $1.6 billion shortfall next year. Louisiana may have no other choice but to hike tuition even more, which would be tough on the 88% of students who stay for college. By Kennan’s accounting, Louisiana might be harming more than just its students; it might also be driving away a valuable section of its future workforce.”
