U.S. turkey supplies have fallen to a 40-year low after avian flu and other viruses wiped out millions of birds this fall, tightening hatchery inventories and pushing wholesale turkey prices up 44%, The U.S. Department of Agriculture says.
Even small farms like Michigan’s Old Brick Farm have felt the squeeze as hatcheries cut availability and input costs rose. Yet retailers are aggressively discounting Thanksgiving turkeys to draw shoppers, masking deeper price pressures across the holiday table.
Datasembly’s market basket of 11 core items is up 4.1% from last year, driven by higher canned goods costs tied to steel and aluminum tariffs and weather-hit crops like cranberries. Other trackers show mixed results, but grocers from Aldi to Kroger are leaning on promotions to soften sticker shock. With beef up 14% year over year, analysts say shifting consumer demand is also lifting turkey prices despite retailer markdowns.
