While the gubernatorial campaign has held center stage for much of this campaign season, several legislative races in Louisiana are heating up and garnering outside attention, as the Oct. 12 primary approaches.
That’s significant because Republicans are within striking distance of winning a supermajority—holding at least two-thirds of the seats—in each chamber of the state Legislature. Getting there, however, could require beating incumbents, a rare accomplishment in Louisiana elections, according to a recent analysis from the LSU Manship School News Service.
Incumbent legislators have won more than 90% of their elections during the past two decades, according to LSU Public Policy Research Lab Director Dr. Michael Henderson. Typically, incumbents leave office only when they reach their term limit or choose to resign.
On the other hand, legislative elections are increasingly decided on a partisan basis. Republicans now hold seats in 85 of the 101 Louisiana House and Senate districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016, while Democrats hold 41 of the 43 House and Senate districts that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton carried.
Republicans are challenging four of the six Democratic or independent incumbents in districts Trump carried. By contrast, Republicans are challenging only three of the 26 incumbent Democrats in districts Clinton carried.
The races in which Republicans are challenging Democratic incumbents pit partisanship against incumbency, testing which of those means more to voters.
As a result, the incumbents in these races are downplaying their party affiliations, mirroring what Gov. John Bel Edwards has done in his campaign. Read the full analysis.
