Betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have begun allowing users to wager on whether the FDA will approve certain cancer drugs and whether clinical trials will succeed, The New York Times reports.
The move has sparked controversy among researchers, doctors, ethicists and patients, who argue that gambling on drug development could damage scientific integrity, encourage insider trading and weaken public trust in clinical trials.
Critics worry that prediction markets could influence trial behavior, for example, by discouraging participants or affecting researchers’ decisions if public bets suggest a study will fail. Cancer patients have also objected, arguing that drug trials involve people’s lives rather than entertainment or speculation.
Kalshi argues that prediction markets provide valuable information by using collective expertise to estimate the likelihood of drug approvals and could help guide investment toward promising treatments. The company says it has safeguards, including banning trading by trial staff, regulators, drug company employees, enrolled patients and others with potential access to confidential information.
Opponents say those protections are insufficient because companies cannot easily identify everyone involved in a clinical trial, and they argue prediction markets create a less regulated version of biotech stock trading. They also fear that failed or manipulated predictions could erode confidence in medical research.
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