A number of factors, including a fractured Republican electorate and a strong black turnout, fueled Democrat John Bel Edwards’ victory over Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter for the governor’s mansion on Saturday, pollster and political analyst John Couvillon told the Press Club of Baton Rouge today.
“What I think happened in the governor’s race was an instance that in my opinion proves this state is not irrevocably Republican,” said Couvillon, president and founder of JMC Enterprises of Louisiana/Analytics and Polling. “The right Democrat can win if he or she pieces together the right coalitions and, of course, if you have a divided Republican party, that also can help the Democrat win.”
Edwards, a state representative from Amite, claimed 56% of the vote in complete, but unofficial results. Edwards led the four-candidate field in the Oct. 24 primary with 40% of the vote. Couvillon said that calling Louisiana a “ruby red” Republican state is “intellectually lazy” given the strong history of Democrats in statewide races.
“Louisiana is not a ruby red state,” Couvillon said. “Just because Republicans have recently gotten majorities, that doesn’t mean Louisiana is irrevocably Republican and will vote Republican in every single instance. A lot of it depends on the candidate and that, I think, is the important takeaway from the election.”
Couvillon noted that Edwards won 40 parishes Saturday; got 37% of the white vote statewide; carried Jefferson and Ascension parishes; nearly won Lafayette Parish and got 40% of the vote in Livingston Parish. Vitter is from Jefferson Parish and was endorsed by elected officials in Lafayette. Vitter also hit what Couvillon called a “blue wall” with Edwards’ strong showing in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets, where Edwards carried about 60% of the vote.
When compared to the vote tallies that former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu got in her failed re-election bid last year against Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, Edwards surpassed Landrieu’s totals in 63 of the 64 parishes, including Landrieu’s base of Orleans Parish.
“This was a very, very impressive victory for him,” Couvillon said.
And though term-limited Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden was unsuccessful in his bid to become lieutenant governor—losing to former Plaquemines Parish president Billy Nungesser, 55% to 45%—Couvillon said Holden should be emboldened by his strong statewide showing. Holden, a Democrat, also dominated the Baton Rouge metro area, where he claimed more than 60% of the vote in East and West Baton Rouge, East and West Feliciana, Livingston, Iberville and Pointe Coupee parishes.
Those totals, Couvillon said, bode well for Holden should he decide to run for a regional office like public service commissioner or the 6th Congressional District seat currently held by Republican Garret Graves.
As for the attorney general’s race in which Republican Jeff Landry ousted fellow Republican and incumbent Buddy Caldwell, 56% to 44%, Couvillon said Landry’s prolonged message questioning Caldwell’s ethics and Caldwell’s lack of response to those claims killed the incumbent’s chances.
“If you say something enough times, in my opinion, and you are not challenged on it by either the media or by the other candidate’s media, that statement tends to become true in the minds of voters, and I think that is what happened in this race,” Couvillon said.
In Republican strongholds such as Jefferson, St. Tammany and Livingston parishes, Landry carried more than 60% of the vote. Couvillon pointed to those numbers—as well as Landry’s aggressive, well-funded media campaign, and the fact that Democrats never forgave Caldwell for switching parties in 2011—as among the deciding factors in the race.
—Ryan Broussard
