OPEC now expects the global oil market to be tighter in 2026 than previously forecast, projecting stronger demand growth and slower rival supply expansion, Bloomberg writes.
The cartel raised its 2026 demand growth estimate by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million, while trimming its non-OPEC supply growth forecast by the same amount. This could deplete global inventories by nearly 1.2 million barrels a day unless more production is restored.
Saudi Arabia and partners recently fast-tracked a 2.2 million-barrel-per-day supply restart, pressuring prices, now down 11% this year to $66 in London. Yet OPEC’s outlook remains more optimistic than the wider industry, recalling last year’s steep demand downgrades.
A recent data change has fueled confusion, as OPEC has reported Saudi “supply-to-market” rather than production volumes, showing compliance with quotas while output rose. The kingdom says extra June production positioned barrels amid regional tensions without selling them. OPEC+ ministers meet Sept. 7 to decide whether to boost, hold, or cut output again.
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