In the year since the energy industry last gathered in for its big annual confab in Houston, prices for oil and natural gas took a dive that few, if anyone, saw coming.
A chastened parade of energy executives, analysts, academics and government officials from several countries delivered speeches and participated in panels as part of IHS’s CERAWeek energy conference, worrying over prices and making a profit, and speculating on what it could all mean for economies and consumers around the world.
Speaker after speaker at this week’s conference said that prices for oil, gasoline and diesel will remain far below where they had been for much of this decade.
“Lower for longer” is how BP CEO Bob Dudley described it. Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson said: “This is going to be with us for a while.”
IHS’s Kurt Barrow expects oil prices possibly to climb back to $65 a barrel by the end of the year. Adam Sieminski, administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, expects oil to average $60 this year. The average price for U.S. oil topped $90 from 2011 through 2014.
Natural gas has fallen even further than oil as U.S. drillers have been producing enormous amounts of gas and mild winter weather kept demand relatively low.
The oil and gas executives delivered this news grimly, but people who use their products are likely to be delighted. Low natural gas prices mean lower heating costs for the half of U.S. households that use natural gas for heat, and they also translate directly to lower electricity prices in many areas.
While the U.S. oil industry is hurting, its financial backers haven’t panicked. Often, oil and gas prices decline because of a weak economy. This time the economy is growing. Bankers and investors are flush with cash and appear willing to wait out the low prices to benefit from a turnaround.
This may have a perverse effect, however. Companies will have the resources to get right back to work as soon as prices rise, and a quick rise in production could stanch a large increase in oil prices.
Read the full story for a complete recap on the themes that emerged from this week’s conference.
