Oil companies read tea leaves to discern industry’s future, formulate strategies

Predicting energy demand, population growth, policy changes and other global trends that will affect oil prices and industry strategy decades from now is far from an exact science. But as The Houston Chronicle reports, major oil and gas companies see value in trying. BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies that publish outlooks forecasting the future of the energy sector. BP’s updated 2030 outlook is set for release Wednesday. The goal: to figure out what the energy world will look like in the future so they can make the most profitable exploration and production decisions today. By releasing their conclusions publicly, these companies also spark an annual conversation about the world’s energy needs. “You have to know what the future framework is before you can make commitments that are in the billions to tens of billions of dollars,” explains John Felmy, the American Petroleum Institute’s chief economist. The challenge is how to forecast events 20 to 40 years from now in a field that changes regularly and is so unpredictable. Read the full story here.