Slight declines in employment, gross metropolitan product and housing prices in Baton Rouge in the third quarter have led the Brookings Institution to downgrade the Capital Region’s ranking on its quarterly MetroMonitor list that tracks economic recovery in the nation’s 100 largest metros since the recession.
The Capital Region had consistently ranked among the 20 best-performing areas on the list, until the fourth quarter of 2010, when Brookings moved Baton Rouge to the “middle 20” category—somewhere between No. 40 and No. 60. Baton Rouge had stayed in that middle 20 category throughout the first two quarters of this year, but has been downgraded in the third quarter to the “second-weakest 20” category—or the bottom 40.
Baton Rouge Area Chamber President/CEO Adam Knapp says losses in government jobs account largely for the downgrade, but maintains the economic outlook for the Capital Region remains positive.
“We feel very strong about where we’re headed in 2012,” Knapp says, adding the Brookings report doesn’t change his outlook for the region at all. “And the reason you’ve been hearing positive expectations from economists and ourselves is because the project work that’s been announced has been among the most promising in the nation. We expect more government job losses next year, but there is also a lot of private sector activity that is going to create a lot of jobs down the road.”
BRAC is forecasting 1% to 1.7% overall job growth in 2012. Economist Loren Scott is equally optimistic in his 2012-13 Louisiana Economic Outlook report, forecasting 1.2% job growth in 2012 and 0.9% growth in 2013.
The Brookings downgrade of the Capital Region may be due, at least in part, to the fact that Baton Rouge’s economic indicators have remained relatively flat over the past year, while other metros appear finally to be rebounding from the worst of the recession. Still, as Knapp points out, the Capital Region’s unemployment rate remains around 7%, while peer cities are still around 8.8%.
Also in the Brookings third-quarter report, New Orleans has pulled a complete reversal, going from the “20 weakest” category—where it’s been since the start of the year—to the “20 strongest.”
See an at-a-glance list of the 100 metro rankings here, and the full report here.
Editors note: This story has been changed since its original publication.
