Though Louisiana is poised to add 12,000 jobs next year and another 22,300 in 2019, the heated job growth rates in the Capital Region are expected to cool in the coming years as a number of major industrial projects are completed, according to economist Loren Scott, who is delivering his annual Louisiana Economic Outlook at Business Report’s Top 100 Luncheon this afternoon.
The Baton Rouge metro area is forecast to add 2,900 jobs next year (0.7% growth) and 3,300 in 2019 (0.8%), Scott says. That’s a downward revision from last year’s Economic Outlook report, in which Scott forecast the area would add about 4,500 jobs in 2018.
The culprit behind the slowdown in job growth is the disappearance of high-paying, permanent construction jobs due to the completion of major industrial expansion projects. Scott says some of the impact is even being felt this year, during which job growth is expected to be at 4,200—less than half the rate of the boom years of 2013-15.
Roughly $15.7 billion in announced industrial projects are either completed or nearing completion, says Scott.
“The Baton Rouge MSA employment will likely enter a lull in 2018, as construction of virtually all of its projects comes to an end,” reads his forecast. “The decline in construction employment will have an arresting effect on total employment in the MSA, especially in 2018.”
The job losses could be reversed if new industrial projects come online by 2019, Scott says, adding major projects in the health care and tech sectors will also help offset losses in the construction sector.
As for the state, which began recovering from its 20-month recession in May, employment should reach 2,013,600 in 2019—marking the first time in history the state has eclipsed the 2 million mark on an annual basis.
The Top 100 Luncheon is part of the Louisiana Business Symposium, which kicked off with a ceremony to unveil the Best Places to Work in Baton Rouge. Read more about the Louisiana Economic Outlook in Daily Report PM.
