Most economists see recovery beginning

More than 80% of economists believe the recession is over and an expansion has begun, but they expect the recovery will be slow as worries over unemployment and high federal debt persist. That consensus comes from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics released today. The forecasters upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, but cautioned that unemployment rates and the federal deficit are expected to remain high through the next year. Forecasters now expect the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, to advance at a 2.9% pace in the second half of the year, after falling for four straight quarters for the first time on records dating to 1947. They expect a 3% gain in 2010. Still, the federal deficit has ballooned and the jobless rate is expected to lag behind, as employers remain cautious. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in September from 9.7%, the Labor Department said earlier this month, the highest point in 26 years.