Louisiana Sens. Bill Cassidy and David Vitter, along with Reps. John Fleming and Ralph Abraham, want some answers from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and National Weather Service on why their recent crest forecasts for the flooding Red River in northwest Louisiana were off the mark.
In a letter sent to federal officials on Thursday, the lawmakers say that “Unfortunately, the recent flooding in north and central Louisiana is an example of the impact(s) that inaccurate predictions can have on life and commerce.”
NWS predictions on the Red River crest changed seven times over 13 days in the runup to flooding, the lawmakers say, creating “significant challenges for local and state emergency managers.”
“Predictions went from a 31.5-foot crest on May 24th to a 34-foot crest on May 29th,” the letter notes. “Expectations then moved to a 35.5-foot crest on June 4th, for an additional foot on June 5th and were finally changed to 37 feet on June 7th.”
In light of those fluctuating crest predictions, the lawmakers ask the Corps and NWS to explain what remediation measures they’ll implement in the future. They also want to know why crest predictions varied from the river’s real time activity, and how the agencies plan to engage local, state and community leaders in gathering data for future crest predictions.
“It has come to our attention that data used to create the predictions for Red River cresting was obtained from flooding that occurred in 1990,” the letter also says. “Why did NWS and USACE use data that was 25 years old to create these hydrological models?”
On the same day the letter was sent, officials in northern Louisiana parishes were warning residents about the potential for future flooding. As The Shreveport Times reports, Caddo and Bossier Parish residents are in for another round of high water, but it’s too soon to know when or how much.
The forecast is still developing due to continuing rainfall in Arkansas and Oklahoma, so it’s still too early to know when the river will crest again in Shreveport but more major flooding is expected, local weather experts say. In the meantime, officials are warning residents affected by the last flood to keep sandbags in place and reconsider moving forward with home repairs until the effects of the current weather system are known.
Federal assessment teams were in Caddo Parish this week and visited 150 properties that reported damage from the last flood. Of those, 69 structures took on water, and 42 were classified by FEMA as having major damage or being destroyed.
—Steve Sanoski
