As Louisiana becomes an increasingly red state, it will be ever more difficult for Democratic candidates to win statewide elections, according to radio host and political commentator Jim Engster.
In a speech today to the Rotary Club of Baton Rouge, Engster recounted the profound shift in party affiliation the state’s electorate has undergone in recent decades—especially over the past 10 years—and speculated about how that might affect future elections.
“Over the past ten years, a majority of white Democrats in the state have become Republicans,” Engster said. “We’re getting to be a lot like Mississippi, where whites vote for white Republicans and blacks vote for black Democrats.”
The 2015 election of Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards was something of an exception to that trend, but that’s only because then Sen. David Vitter, his Republican opponent in the runoff, was a flawed candidate with a prostitution scandal in his pro-family past.
“Edwards won because he was a Democratic candidate running against an unacceptable Republican,” Engster said. “If he had faced an acceptable Republican, well, this is Republican territory. It would have been a different race.”
Engster said Edwards could have a more difficult time seeking reelection in 2019, depending on who runs against him, though he has three advantages: status as an incumbent, a sizable war chest and socially conservative positions on issues like abortion and gun control.
“Edwards’ biggest threat next may not be from a Republican but if he is attacked from the left by a more liberal, viable black candidate,” he said.
One challenge that Edwards could face is from Republican Sen. John Kennedy. Though Kennedy is currently serving his first term, he is testing the waters for a gubernatorial run, Engster said.
Not so long ago, both Kennedy and his colleague in the Senate, Bill Cassidy, were both Democrats, Engster reminded his audience.
Cassidy switched parties in 2001, Kennedy in 2007.
