Two new polls released today continue a trend from polls in late September that showed incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards in the lead—with the potential to win the race outright in the primary—and Baton Rouge businessman Eddie Rispone ahead of U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham.
But the margin of error in both polls and the percentage of undecided voters makes the question of whether there will be a runoff still too close to call.
In the first poll, conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling for the Louisiana Association of Health Plans, 45% of those who have made up their minds favored Edwards, while 20% favored Rispone, and 19% favored Abraham.
Undecided voters were about 14% of those polled, WBRZ-TV reports. When factored in with a follow-up question asking them to isolate a candidate, Edwards and Rispone each gained two additional percentage points.
Edwards also led by 45% in a separate poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy on behalf of broadcasting company Gray Television, which owns six Louisiana stations, WAFB-TV reports. That poll, gives Rispone a more commanding lead over Abraham—22% for Rispone compared to 17% for Abraham. The poll of 625 registered voters has a margin of error of 4%. All of the voters polled said they were likely to vote in the Saturday election. Ten percent of those polled were undecided.
The breakdown by party affiliation in the Mason-Dixon poll had 80% of Democrats supporting Edwards while Republicans were split, with 41% backing Rispone and 35% behind Abraham.
If there’s a run-off between Edwards and Rispone, 51% said they would vote for Edwards while 42% said they would cast a ballot for Rispone. Seven percent were undecided.
If a run-off occurs between Edwards and Abraham, the poll found 53% would back Edwards while 38% would support Abraham. Nine percent were undecided.
See the JMC poll results here, and Mason-Dixon’s poll results here.
