Four years ago, politicos learned not to trust the early polling in a Louisiana governor’s race and disregard the fundamentals of a Democrat running for an elected position in a supposedly fire-engine red state. Heading into tomorrow’s runoff, that same Democrat, now an incumbent, has an inside-the-margins edge over his GOP challenger.
While 2015 was an exercise in the politics of personality—Gov. John Bel Edwards’ “honor code” persona versus the steely tactics of former U.S. Sen. David Vitter—the current cycle has been yanked into the orbit of President Donald Trump. Which is to say only one personality mattered this go-around, and it was an election that was unquestionably nationalized, from the issues and the money to the surrogates and the ads.
Trump’s Thursday night rally in Bossier City in support of GOP challenger Eddie Rispone made clear just how personally the president is taking Louisiana’s gubernatorial election. He reportedly considers it a referendum on himself. “You’ve got to give me a big win, OK?” Trump told the audience, referencing the Edwards-Rispone showdown.
Here are some other basics heading into the final day:
• Louisiana’s race is the only remaining gubernatorial election in the U.S. this year and Edwards is the Deep South’s only Democratic governor.
• In predicting the outcome of the race, The Cook Political Report has the election as a “toss-up” and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has it classified as “leans Democratic.”
• Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin is predicting 51% turnout (compared to 40% for the 2015 runoff).
• Public polling over the past week has shown a tight race separating the contenders by just a couple of points, with Edwards maintaining an edge from within the margin over Rispone.
• After a record early-voting turnout and a strong showing by Democrats, community-level turnout efforts are expected to be aggressive, if not historic. The governor needs to over-perform in Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Shreveport.
• Republicans are bullish about turnout in rural areas and Rispone may have leveraged his growing support in north Louisiana into gains in the central and southern parts of the state. White conservative voters could turn this election, particularly in the two dozen or so rural parishes that Edwards won in 2015 and former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu lost in her final election.
• Rispone’s campaign spent significant cash on a data-driven, targeted model and tomorrow represents the real test drive of what could prove to be the brand all candidates want to drive going forward.
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com
