With the 2019 election cycle approaching, LaPolitics reports special interests and party operatives that traditionally play in legislative contests are more confident than ever that big changes are coming to the Louisiana Legislature.
“Term limits alone will see to that,” LaPolitics reports. “As of now, 34 representatives out of the 105-member state House are ineligible for re-election, as are 16 legislators in the 39-member Senate. All in, that’s 34% of the Legislature that is going to be replaced in January 2020, which could, in turn, reshape the legislative landscape next term.”
While the Senate represents the largest potential sea change, with 41% of its membership turning over, Republicans appear poised to continue growing their majorities in both chambers of the Legislature. The House, however, isn’t being ignored and the state GOP seems to be taking aim already at white Democratic representatives, as it has the past two terms.
Demographics and voting patterns in some of the House districts represented by white Democrats have been trending Republican and more conservative in recent years—to the point of peaking just in time for the 2019 cycle.
“There are some seats that we actually think could be more vulnerable than they were in previous years,” says Louisiana Republican Party Executive Director Andrew Bautsch, without disclosing actual seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, think they could have a few opportunities to do the same—flipping a red seat or two blue—but like their Republican counterparts, no hints are being given as to where these pickups could occur in the state.
“We haven’t pinpointed those districts and made decisions on those just yet,” says Rep. Robert Johnson of Marksville, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus. Regardless, the primary focus of the caucus’ strategy will be to maintain the 39 House seats the minority party currently possesses.
“Number one is to protect our existing seats,” says Johnson, adding that the key will be protecting the body’s 25 incumbent Democrats who are not term-limited. That means the party must likewise recruit candidates to fill 14 open seats next year, and boosters contend they are already making some headway.
They said it: “General, do you believe in the tooth fairy?”—U.S. Sen. John Kennedy, questioning the FBI’s inspector general, in a congressional hearing
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
