Could Democratic control of the U.S. House lead to trouble for Louisiana’s Democratic governor in 2019? While Gov. John Bel Edwards’ re-election bid looks strong, the blue wave on Capitol Hill will likely be more trick than treat for the team from Tangi.
Let’s play every strategist’s favorite game: What if? What if House Democrats spend most of their first year lobbing bombs at President Donald Trump and refusing to bend on his agenda? And what if the president says, “That’s cool, House Dems,” and he gets the MAGAverse all worked up via the Twitter Machine because he’s being treated poorly?
In pro-Trump Louisiana, that means conservative diehards would probably turn on the House’s leadership.
Under this “What If?” scenario, the anti-JBE opposition forces would seek to link the governor to the House leadership. It’s a trusted war cry, not unlike the Obama guilt-by-association mantra that peaked in Louisiana politics in 2014 and 2015. The 2015 attacks on Edwards for publicly declaring his support for former President Barack Obama weren’t strong enough to cut short his long-shot bid. Therefore, the governor’s connections to D.C. politicians he never had the opportunity to vote for might be tougher to construct. On the other hand, his growing national profile could make the narrative more believable for certain voters.
If the House leadership ignites flames big enough to be felt in the Bayou State, then Edwards won’t be the only Louisiana Democrat fading the heat back home. White Democrats running for re-election in rural districts—largely considered a vanishing species in Capitoland—should particularly take note.
—Turnout exceeded expectations for last week’s elections and topped 48%, following a mild 30% to 35% forecast from the secretary of state. Some models, however, saw the spike coming. For example, last Thursday, Nov. 1, the internal tabulations from the Baton Rouge-based firm of Ourso Beychok estimated a potential window of 46.44% to 50.67% and a total vote count of 1,396,532 for the statewide SOS race. (Roughly 60,000 votes shy of hitting the mark.)
To be certain, the locals turned up the heat in this cycle. The average turnout for the races for parish president was 57%. Some mayoral elections were even higher, with 63% engagement in Abita Springs; 58% in Morse and Rayne; and 59% turnout in Iota. (The chief of police election in Basile saw an 80% turnout. Then again, only eight people voted.)
They said it: “I’m not even sure the Saints could beat Alabama.” —U.S. Sen. John Kennedy, on the strength of the Crimson Tide, to an NBC reporter
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
