We could kick off this exercise by pointing to the Republican supermajority in the Louisiana Legislature. Or we could explore how the GOP exclusively holds every statewide elected office. Maybe it’s even worth noting the Republican Party is just months away from seizing a plurality in the Bayou State’s voter registration rolls.
Take your pick. There are a multitude of ways to measure the current weakness of the Louisiana Democratic Party.
Here’s another one: The only marketable Democrat anyone is talking about for next year’s hot-to-trot U.S. Senate race—former Gov. John Bel Edwards—isn’t even a candidate, and he probably won’t be without some kind of divine political intervention.
National and state party influencers have encouraged Edwards to run, and like any good politician, he knows how to play his responses to related media inquiries. Edwards hasn’t publicly said he’s not running, and he hasn’t said he is running. Those close to the former governor, however, say they wouldn’t bet the farm on an Edwards candidacy.
So at some point soon the showman will give way to the statesman and Edwards will likely call for party unity and a continuation of his own private life outside the glare of elected politics. While certainly pure speculation, he may even endorse a candidate or suggest a recruitment push.
“I’m sure if he doesn’t decide to run shortly, then the political observers who support Democratic causes are going to start looking for a candidate,” says former Rep. Randal Gaines, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party.
What, exactly, will that look like?
Congressmen Cleo Fields and Troy Carter are both on many wishlists, but they’re ensconced in safe seats and seem uninterested at best. Gaines also mentioned former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who remains active in politics but hasn’t run a statewide race since 2007, during his time as lieutenant governor. Yet even Landrieu would be quick to qualify that the political environment has changed dramatically since then.
For now, all incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy has to worry about are challenges from within his own party. Treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta all question Cassidy’s integrity—not to mention his previous vote to convict President Donald Trump. (While not declared, Congresswoman Julia Letlow remains a wild card.)
Democrats are rooting for a bruising Republican primary, notes Albert Samuels, who chairs the political science department at Southern University. When Edwards first ran statewide for governor, he benefitted from a slate of Republican contenders who fought each other more than they targeted Edwards. But that was a jungle primary battle, not a closed party ballot.
“There’s a lot of intrigue on the Republican side,” Samuels says. “The question on the Democrats’ side is, Will they even have a viable challenge at all?”
In 2015, when Edwards won his long shot bid for governor, the bit of strength the Louisiana Democratic Party still had was used in part to convince Edwards not to run. Edwards, of course, ignored those suggestions and built his own political infrastructure that mainline party folks eventually embraced.
Today, there’s barely any notable stroke or strength remaining.
“The Democratic Party is nonexistent in this state. The structural Democratic Party, the formal Democratic Party, is a nonentity,” says Bob Mann, an author of Louisiana political history and a Democratic staffer for the likes of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and former U.S. Sen. Russell Long.
Just take a closer look at the rest of the 2026 midterm slate in Louisiana. Democrats have so far failed to recruit any splashy names to challenge our four Republican incumbents, though party leaders say they’re working on it and are in contact with interested individuals.
“We don’t have a deep bench at this point,” Gaines admits.
To be fair, those GOP congressional incumbents represent districts that were drawn to elect Republicans. So those races would be a tough commitment for any Democrat. That’s why the top goals currently are rebuilding infrastructure and identifying young leaders who haven’t run for office yet.
“We didn’t get here overnight,” Gaines says. “And we’re not going to solve it overnight.”
In the short term, Gaines is asking potential candidates to make their intentions known by Oct. 15. He hopes a slate of Democratic candidates will make a strong showing in 2026, and understand it’s a rebuilding era. After all, even if they lose in 2026, those same politicos could raise their profiles in the process and make stronger runs for local and state offices in the future.
One rank-and-file Democrat who took such a plunge last year is business consultant Nick Laborde. He ran for the Public Service Commission seat that was ultimately captured by Jean-Paul Coussan. With very little money and only local name recognition, Laborde finished a distant second in the jungle primary with 26% of the vote.
“Depending on your perspective, I missed a runoff by four points or I lost by 28,” Laborde says. “I’ll pick the smaller number.”
From the back of an envelope as a new politico in the world of elected politics, Laborde theorizes that a backlash to recent Republican-backed legislation might at least allow a Democratic Senate candidate to crack 40% in Louisiana, which would best last year’s performance by former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Heck, it might even create some enthusiasm for the Louisiana Democratic Party. But Laborde doesn’t express much confidence in the state party to capitalize.
“I don’t see a big recruitment effort,” Laborde says. “I don’t see a plan, and I would love to see a plan.”
So if it’s former Gov. Edwards or bust, what would JBE’s odds be in a closed primary environment? Pollster John Couvillon puts his chances no higher than 30%.
While Edwards posted a winning number in his last statewide runoff in November 2019, Couvillon says a 2026 run would position the former governor as a water carrier for a national party that’s deeply unpopular in Louisiana.
“I don’t see him hanging onto that 51 percent,” the pollster says.
Still, no one who’s serious about Democratic politics in Louisiana expects Edwards to be an actual candidate. That leaves the party with no lead personality and just a lot of politics.
In states with a longer history of party primaries, one party will sometimes spend money to influence the politics and turnout of races on the other side. Why? Possibly to help who they see as the lesser of two evils, or to boost a more extreme candidate that could be an easier target in the general.
Back home in Louisiana, it’s difficult to see who might fund such an effort, or what the play would be in a field where everyone is likely to be a reliable vote for President Trump. From a Democrat’s perspective, it might not even matter who wins the Republican nomination, in contrast to the 2015 governor’s race, when former state Sen. Jay Dardenne was seen by many as the moderate alternative to former U.S. Sen. David Vitter.
When money is tight for Dems, and it is, you need good baseline polling and a targeted spend to achieve the desired outcome, says government relations and campaign consultant Mary-Patricia Wray, who directed media communications for Edwards’ first run for governor.
Otherwise, you’ll just pay to play—with little to nothing to show for the investment.
“If you want to fix the race by promoting the most beatable Republican, or tearing down the strongest one, you could find you waste a lot of scarce resources,” Wray says. “The math probably won’t math.”
[crowdsignal poll=15853214]
