With the Supreme Court striking down laws that require government workers to pay union fees, one thing is clear: Most public-sector unions in more than 20 states with such laws are going to get smaller and poorer in the coming years.
As The New York Times reports in its analysis of the court decision, though it is difficult to predict with precision, experts and union officials say they could lose 10% to one-third of their members, or more, in the states affected, as conservative groups seek to persuade workers to drop out.
Dropping out of a union is a more attractive proposition now that workers no longer have to pay a so-called agency fee, typically about 80% of union dues, if they choose not to belong to a union.
However, union leaders insist that they won’t be crippled by the decision—that the crisis posed by the case, Janus v. American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, has brought more cohesion and energy to their ranks.
“No one wanted this case,” said Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers. “But the gestalt around the country has been to turn an existential threat into an opportunity to engage with our members like never before.”
In anticipation of the Janus ruling, major public-sector unions have invested heavily in recent years in reaching out to current members and to prospective members to keep their numbers from dropping precipitously and create a more activist culture.
Mary Kay Henry, the international president of the service employees union, said the union used projections derived from its experience after the 2014 Harris v. Quinn decision, which struck down mandatory union fees for home-based workers who serve private individuals but are paid through government programs like Medicaid.
Henry said the union, which represents about two million workers, roughly half of them in the public sector, was focusing its spending on recruiting members and mobilizing workers to face down employers and elect pro-labor politicians.
“We intend to prioritize the political and organizing work,” she said.
