Keep dreaming of a white Christmas

What is the probability of the Capital Region experiencing a white Christmas—not just this year, but every year? According to a study by the National Climatic Data Center, the odds are zero—unless you live in northeast Louisiana. Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles, New Orleans and Shreveport boast 0% chance of receiving any recorded snowfall on Dec. 25, and Monroe has a 4% chance of receiving at least 1 inch. The study looked at nationwide data from 1961-90. Marquette, Mich., Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., Hibbing, Minn., International Falls, Minn., and Stampede Pass, Wash., had the greatest probability for at least 1 inch of snow depth (100%); Stampede Pass had the greatest probability for at least 5 inches (100%) and 10 inches (96%). Generally, the greatest probabilities lie where they would be expected—over the northern U.S. and in mountainous areas. The chances are 60% or better over an area that includes much of the northern Rockies, the northern Great Plains, the Great Lakes area and most of New England. The chances are less than 20% over most of the southern third of the country, excluding the Rockies and parts of the Pacific coast. To read the NCDC study, click here. It will be clear and cold on Christmas Day in Baton Rouge, with a high in the low 50s and a low in the mid 30s.