If you’re looking for insight into what will happen next year when Gov. John Bel Edwards and Louisiana legislators tackle tax reform and the state’s $1 billion hole, then look no farther than the dueling House and Senate tax bills currently under debate in the nation’s capital, Business Report Executive Editor JR Ball says.
“The reality of what’s actually included in these bills isn’t what’s important for this discussion,” Ball writes in his latest column. “Like Obamacare, it seems the truth won’t be known until something actually passes.”
What does matter, Ball says, is this:
- “Democrats hate both plans. Middle-of-the-road Republicans support general concepts but are uneasy with many of the specifics. And those clinging to President Donald Trump’s popularity love the best of both plans and could not care less about the specifics.
- The so-called winners—large corporations and the super wealthy—are thrilled while everyone else pours over the rhetoric and ever-evolving math to decipher if they’re a ‘winner’ or ‘loser.’ And no one is truly interested in addressing the escalating cost of Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid.
- Every tax credit, rebate and entitlement program has an army of vocal defenders, armed and at the ready—with an arsenal of money and an armada of PR wonks and lobbyists—to annihilate the mere whisper of a cutback.
- And the broadly-defined middle class will ultimately bear the financial brunt of any ‘reform’ that’s ultimately approved—though everyone will go to great lengths to deny this truth.”
Ball acknowledges he has no clue as to what Edwards will propose in his brand of tax reform or what Republicans in the House will offer as a counter proposal.
“But does anyone doubt the clown show playing out on Capitol Hill will reprise itself once the spectacle of tax reform arrives in Baton Rouge?” he writes.
There’s no doubt, he says, that we’ll continue to ignore the fundamental problem of retirement debt—even though we’re told the can-kicking time is over and legislators have no choice but to implement tax reform.
And the main plot points will be the same, Ball adds, noting that Republicans and special interest groups will fight giving Edwards a political win and no one seeking reelection in 2018 wants to run with a tax hike on their record.
“Which brings us to the dilemma of entitlements where one person’s waste is another one’s lifeblood. As we’re seeing in D.C., once you give birth to a perk or service or program it’s almost impossible to kill. This reality is no different in Louisiana,” Ball writes. “Consequently, what likely will happen next spring is a lot of sound and a lot of fury that ultimately will signify nothing. In other words, after much preening, a stymied governor and rebel legislators will opt to kick that can one more time by simply extending those ‘temporary’ taxes.”
Read the full column. Send your comments to editors@businessreport.com.
