The global oil market is tipping deeper into surplus, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest report.
As the Wall Street Journal writes, the IEA now projects global oil supply to grow by 3 million barrels a day in 2025—outpacing demand growth of just 710,000 barrels a day—as large volumes of crude from OPEC+ and the Americas head toward major storage hubs. The buildup marks the biggest increase in floating or in-transit oil since the pandemic.
Despite swelling inventories, Brent prices have remained relatively stable between $65 and $75 a barrel, supported by differences in pricing for natural-gas liquids versus crude. OPEC+ ramped up production by 1 million barrels a day in September and plans further increases through the end of the year, though some members continue to underproduce.
The IEA warns that once the excess crude reaches key hubs, inventories will likely climb further, intensifying supply-side pressure on global prices.
