President Donald Trump has pursued policies favoring fossil fuels and rolled back federal measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while dismissing climate change and criticizing climate initiatives, The Washington Post reports.
At the same time, the ongoing war in Iran has disrupted global oil and natural gas production and transportation, sharply reducing fossil fuel consumption and changing the outlook for global emissions in 2026. International Energy Agency data shows global oil demand is now expected to decline 2.5% this year compared with 2025, a reduction equivalent to avoiding greenhouse gas emissions from about 42 million internal-combustion-engine vehicles.
The decline is particularly notable because the IEA had initially forecast significant growth in fossil fuel consumption, and the difference between those January projections and current demand represents emissions equivalent to roughly 103 million cars.
The longer-term impact remains uncertain. Energy shortages and high prices are encouraging some consumers to adopt hybrid and electric vehicles, while utilities and homeowners are shifting toward renewable energy, nuclear power, heat pumps and other alternatives. Analysts continue to debate how much of this “demand destruction” will be permanent, with many forecasts showing oil and gas demand recovering toward pre-conflict levels in 2027.
Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov says some demand destruction may be permanent, while energy consultancy DNV warns that prolonged disruptions could accelerate structural changes in global energy consumption. DNV says the probability of permanent demand destruction increases as the conflict continues.
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