Holiday sales expected to see modest increase

Winter holiday sales are forecast to rise 2.8% to $465.6 billion this year, says the nation’s largest retail trade group, the National Retail Federation. That would be smaller than 2010’s 5.2% increase, but higher than the average increase for November and December over the past decade. And it would continue a recovery that began last year, after holiday sales fell by 4.4% in 2008 and 0.4% in 2009. “While businesses remain concerned over the viability of the economic recovery, there is no doubt that the retail industry is in a better position this year to handle consumer uncertainty than it was in 2008 and 2009,” says NRF President/CEO Matthew Shay. The NRF forecast is in line with sales predictions from ShopperTrak and the International Council of Shopping Centers, which both foresee a 3% increase in sales for November and December. Those groups both measured a 4.1% increase in 2010. Consulting firm Deloitte forecasts an increase of 2.5% to 3% for November through January. It measured a 5.9% gain last year. NRF says holiday revenue grew 2.6% per year on average over the past 10 years. The NRF counts sales at discounters, department stores, grocery stores and specialty merchants. It excludes automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants.