Radio personality and political pundit Jim Engster predicts Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards will beat Republican U.S Sen. David Vitter in the Nov. 21 gubernatorial runoff election. In a speech today to the Baton Rouge Rotary Club, Engster pointed out that the three most recent polls, when averaged, show Edwards with a 16-point lead over Vitter—53% to 37%.
“Right now, David Vitter, for the first time in his campaign, is trying to change the momentum late in a campaign, which is never easy to do,” Engster said. “Unless something very unusual happens, it appears our next governor will be the man from Amite.”
Engster, owner and president of the Louisiana Radio Network and host of The Jim Engster Show on TALK 107.3 WBRP-FM, attributed Vitter’s decline, at least in part, to the slew of negative ads that began running in the final weeks of the primary campaign. Not only was Vitter hurt by the ads his opponents aired against him, but by his own commercials targeting his Republican opponents, Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne.
“So now those supporters (of Angelle and Dardenne) don’t feel very warm and fuzzy about voting for him,” Engster says.
Vitter’s avoidance of debates and his refusal to address “the serious sin” in his past to which he has previously alluded hasn’t helped his campaign either—particularly in a runoff contest against Edwards, a West Point graduate and pro-life family man.
“This race is largely about personality, and Vitter is running against a guy who comes across as something of an Eagle Scout,” he said.
The dynamics of the race are somewhat astounding, given that just six months ago polls showed Vitter with 38% of the vote and he finished the primary with just 23%. Edwards, on the other hand, had 25% of the vote according to polls last spring. He finished with 40% in the primary.
“Sen. Vitter has to change the inertia big time,” Engster said. “Edwards is a reasonably acceptable Democrat running against what many feel is an unacceptable Republican.”
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Engster predicted Republican Billy Nungesser will beat Democrat Kip Holden—even if Edwards wins the gubernatorial election. Though that would mean voters would cross parties as they made their way down the ballot, it won’t be the first time that has happened: In 1996, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton beat Republican Bob Dole in Louisiana by more than 250,000 votes. In the U.S. Senate race, however, which was the second item on the ballot, Democrat Mary Landrieu beat Republican Woody Jenkins by fewer than 5,000 votes.
Said Engster: “That tells you more than 240,000 Louisianans went into the voting booth and voted for Clinton then voted for Woody Jenkins.”
—Stephanie Riegel
