The economy is ending 2011 on a roll. The job market is healthier. Americans are spending lustily on holiday gifts. There are signs the long-awaited turnaround for the depressed housing industry may be under way. Gas is cheaper. Factories are busier. Stocks are higher. Not bad for an economy faced with a debt crisis in Europe and, as recently as this summer, scattered predictions of a second recession at home. Instead, the economy has grown faster each quarter this year, and the last three months should be the best. When The Associated Press surveyed 43 economists in August, they pegged the likelihood of another recession at roughly one in four. The Dow Jones industrial average was lurching up or down by 400 points or more some days.
There was plenty of reason for gloom. A political standoff over the federal borrowing limit brought the United States to the brink of default and cost the nation its top-drawer credit rating. Most analysts now rule out another recession. They think the economy will grow at an annual rate of more than 3% from October through December, the fastest pace since a 3.8% performance the spring of 2010. Many economists still worry that the year-end surge isn’t sustainable, in part because the average worker’s pay is barely rising. And Europe may already be sliding into a recession that will infect the United States. Read the full story from The Associated Press, including figures on jobs, spending, consumer confidence, gas and inventories, here.
