Business economists still think the economy will continue to grow for the next two years, but they again have scaled back their expectations for just how much.
The Associated Press reports the median estimate from economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics calls for gross domestic product growth of 1.5% this year, down from the 1.8% they forecast in June. The outlook for next year calls for 2.3% growth.
In addition, 81% of those surveyed say they don’t expect the U.S. economy to peak until at least 2018.
The association notes that the September report, released today, represents the fourth-consecutive quarterly survey in which the participating economists have lowered their expectations for 2016 for GDP growth.
The group points to lower expectations for business investment as the main reason, but it also notes that worries about the outcome of November’s presidential election are also weighing on expectations. Just over half of the economists surveyed say election uncertainty had a “modest negative” impact on their GDP expectation for this year.
The association adds that 56% of those surveyed say they see the possibility of a Hillary Clinton win as having a neutral effect on their economic growth expectations, while 60% say they think the election of Donald Trump would have a negative effect.
On the bright side, the economists don’t expect the reduced GDP expectations to carry over to consumer spending. The report’s median forecast for growth in real personal consumption expenditures is 2.7% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017.
The survey of 46 forecasters was taken between Aug. 8 and Aug. 25.
