Economists forecast moderate 2013 U.S. growth

A group of economists believe the country will see modest growth in 2013, with strength coming from a further rebound in housing that will help offset weak business investment. In its latest survey of top forecasters, the National Association for Business Economics says it is looking for the economy to grow in 2013 by 2.1%, a dip after 2.2% growth in 2012. That would continue the same tepid growth the country has seen since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009. Economic expansion at that pace is not strong enough to make a significant improvement in unemployment. The NABE economists believe unemployment will average 7.7% throughout next year, right at the level it reached in November. The 48 NABE economists on the survey panel voiced essentially the same outlook as their previous forecast in October. While they have modest expectations for 2013, they do see growth slowly improving as the year progresses. The economists forecast growth in the gross domestic product—the economy’s total output of goods and services—at 1.6% in the current October-December quarter, down from 2.7% growth in the July-September period. The NABE panel is anticipating national GDP growth at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of next year, 2.4% in the second quarter, 2.6% in the third quarter, and 3% in the fourth quarter next year.