While Mayor Sharon Weston Broome has picked up endorsements from most of the parish’s Democratic elected officials and enjoys a strong lead in the upcoming mayor’s race, polling at 41% in the only independent survey to date, the parish’s Republican leadership is divided among which of the three GOP challengers it would like to see in the No. 2 spot.
In late September, a coalition of Capital Region lawmakers led by Sen. Bodi White, R-Central, endorsed Steve Carter, himself, a former state legislator.
Earlier today, the East Baton Rouge Parish Republican Party, led by community newspaper publisher and former state lawmaker Woody Jenkins, endorsed businessman Jordan Piazza, who was polling in single digits in late September, against Carter’s 14% and Metro Council member Matt Watson’s 13%.
Watson, meanwhile, who has not announced any major endorsements from prominent GOP organizations, is polling higher in Central and Mid City than either of his two Republican rivals, though Carter leads in the Garden District and Highland-Perkins areas of south Baton Rouge.
What does the apparent split among the GOP say about the mayoral primary and which candidate, if any, is most likely to land a runoff spot against Broome?
Pollster John Couvillon, who conducted the September poll for the Baton Rouge Area Chamber, says to the extent endorsements matter, Jenkins’ support of Piazza could help the political newcomer, who has staked out the most conservative territory of the three.
“Piazza is behind in the poll, but Woody does have a group of devoted followers,” Couvillon says. “If Woody wants to publicize his endorsement of Piazza in his newspapers, that could really help Piazza get the word out.”
But Couvillon also believes Carter is still the most likely to make the December runoff against Broome, regardless of endorsements, because he is popular among swing voters and still has a lot of money to spend on a media blitz in the final days of the campaign.
“We just don’t know how much money Piazza will have going into the final stretch to get his message out,” he says. “He was doing a good job of raising money but he has burned through a lot of it.”
More importantly, Couvillon believes Carter is the only candidate who could potentially beat Broome because he’s the only one of the three who could potentially pull Democratic votes from the mayor, who leads the only other Democrat in the race, State Rep. C. Denise Marcelle, by more than 30 points.
But Southern University political science professor Albert Samuels says it likely doesn’t matter which of the three Republicans ends up in a runoff with Broome.
“It’s hard to beat an incumbent,” Samuels says. “You have to have a good reason to throw an incumbent out of office. I just don’t see it happening.”
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